Lockdown Deaths - Ignorance Paradox

Update: Week 16/17 showed an alarming level of excess deaths non-virus. However, week 18 shows non-virus death excess has fallen from 3302 to 1977 which is a positive for sure.

The announcement on the 10th of May changes everything. The partial lifting of the lockdown and sights of commuters in close quarters in London, makes a second wave appear more likely. I believe that a second wave now would be easier to deal with than one later on in the winter.

There is a plan to get us out of lockdown fully today. I have presented it to people and their jaws drop. It goes against everything we have been doing so far. I will firstly make you aware of the deaths cause by lockdown. Some have suggested that the excess deaths that have been registered each week are more cases that the virus is responsible for; even the suicides, death by domestic violence, heart attacks and strokes brought on by lack of sleep, anxiety and lockdown stress. I then highlight some of the many harms that the lockdown has brought upon us. I only show a minuscule proportion of them. The full list would fill a thousand pages. So much of our lives have been upended.

Is the plan dubious because of who is presenting it? Watching a video from a 'man in a shed' (it is actually a log cabin) does not inspire confidence. Maybe I should have filmed it in my millionaire's mansion instead or would that have given off another bad impression. I have consulted with consultants working in large hospitals. I have used the information published by professionals. What I want it nothing other than a debate. We debated Brexit for two years. We had a bill put to the house of commons where only tiny changes were made. It passed through the house of lords with no amendments. We had no public consultation. The members of parliament went on holiday for several weeks and did not scrutinise the lockdown. Protesting is made very difficult. Thank heavens for TikTok. Ironically, a Chinese owned company that has given lockdown victims a voice. The media only show the tally of virus victims. That is their only care. That is the only thing they talk about.

Lockdown deaths

Can we stand by whilst our youngsters are committing suicide? Not all are related to lockdown, but many are. People have been pushed over the edge by the restrictions and lack of hope that the lockdown has taken away. Whilst efforts are being made to encourage those feeling unwell to go to hospital, many are too frightened to go. Some feel that they don't wish to trouble the NHS. Whatever the case, many are dying at home. These are lockdown deaths. There have been reports that parents have not taken their unwell children to hospital and they have died as a result. Being at home all day, bored, has led to less exercise and people eating more. People who have been making an effort to keep their weight in check by attending classes and the gym can no longer do so. With 20,000,000 people classed as obese, it does not take much for a large number to be affected by diabetes and premature death. If 0.5% (1 in 200) were to perish due to the lockdown that is a staggering 100,000 people that will not see the year out. Establishing any figure is difficult.

For some 5 weeks 2300/week were not arriving in hospital for cancer diagnosis. We do not know the number of heart attack victims that have died due to the lockdown so far. We do know that out of 100 expected only 50 are showing at the emergency departments.

There are things we know and a lot we don't. The problem is this; if we wait for more information and data we could lose a lot of people. Do we see how things go or do some modelling on the deaths due to lockdown and make a decision? Personally, I feel that it is like being on the Titanic and standing about to "see what happens". The ship is sinking.

One key question will haunt us. What do we do when the money runs out? It is likely to run out by the end of July 2020. Unless restrictions are lifted and a vast proportion of the workforce is back in work, the money will be the killer. How can we stop a second wave, a third wave with no money to furlough people anymore?

I believe that over 80% of the population will get the virus one way or another by the end of the year irrespective of what lockdowns are in place. It is like trying to catch water in a sieve. The lockdowns slow the rate at which deaths occur. They are unlikely to reduce the awful total. We can have 1000 deaths per day for 300 days or 5000 deaths per day for 60 days. However, as each day passes, we add more to the lockdown deaths.

Economic damage.

Unemployment rate expected to go beyond 10%.

1 in 5 businesses destroyed.

Huge government borrowing.

13% drop in GDP forecast.

Potential for financial meltdown.

Tax revenues impacted. Less VAT, APD, stamp duty from house sales, NI, Income tax, Corporation tax.

Increase in universal credit payments. Grants to businesses and furlough payments.

The vulnerable

This problem is huge. How can we expect the 1. 4 million vulnerable persons to stay at home for 18 months? How do we view the millions that will never see grandparents, children ever again? If the virus passes through fast in 2 months, we can assume that this problem will go away. How many of them will die of stress, anxiety, depression and heart attacks in the 18-month period? 600,000 people die each year. Their last year is not going to be pleasant.

Care homes have been badly hit. I suspect these are a hot bed of virus transfer due to the constant interactions between staff and clients. Will these become "send them to their death" homes? Will we be reluctant to put our family members into care homes given how prone they are to outbreaks?

The starving

135,000,000 people have been very short of food in various parts of Africa for some time. The so called 'hunger pandemic' is growing and could climb to 200 million and beyond. Food aid is not getting through. Locust invasion ongoing. Covid-19 is stopping people dealing with it.

Measles

We have a safe ready supply of a measles vaccine and yet we have suspended the vaccination program. Tens of thousands of children will die. Millions will suffer lifelong damage. Damage to eyesight and more.

Uncomfortable - uncompassionate rules

Pregnant mothers can't have their partner by them throughout their labour, limited time at best.

Funerals with only 6 in attendance and no wake.

Cancelled non urgent medical issues.

IVF programs were cancelled. Update: They will be restored now on May 11th 2020.

100,000 people have hip replacement operations each year. These have been delayed significantly. Many will have to live in pain for a lot longer. So too will those needing knee operations. 700,000 routine operations are normally carried out each month, these should restart soon, hopefully before the backlog gets too large. Preparations for surgery that normally take 20 mins now take 1hr. Hopefully, this too can be addresses as this lowers the number that can be done each day.

Ruby wax has said, "There is a Tsunami of mental health problems that will emerge soon" Esther Rantzen has said, "Calls to childline have tripled"

Sweden / Belarus

Sweden/Belarus are showing the way. They have reached peak infection and it is levelling off there. They will be 'done' in 3-4 weeks. We will just be at the start of our nightmare. Sweden may see 50,000 excess deaths. However, no lockdown deaths should occur.

The number of virus-related deaths in the UK could be as high as 300,000. Recent reports indicate 100,000. At present we have a tally of around 28,000

The Environment

As economies crash, the environment will be damaged. Rainforests will be felled. Environmental protection will be cast aside. The temporary reprieve will be short lived. Who will care about plastic in the oceans when they have no job and no money? The lockdown will not aid the environment, it will threaten it significantly.

Invisible suffering.

Half the population are out and about. They are fine. It all seems fine. What they do not see is all the suffering away from view. They are oblivious to the pain others are in. People are at home not because of the lockdown, but because they are unable to get out. Delayed operations mean that they will be stuck in doors for many months more before they even get on a waiting list. There is pain, there is horror behind those doors you walk past.

Rich getting richer

The rich really are getting richer. The social divide that is opening up is unprecedented. There will be shorter life expectancy for those left behind. A 6% drop in GDP leads to an average of 3 months reduction in life expectancy. A 13% drop in GDP will lead to a reduction that will evidently be much graver.

Places of worship closed

For a large section of society, faith, religion and spirituality form an integral part of their life. Being unable to go into place of worship is significant. Some have manged to watch sermons and receive support by video online, but this is far removed from being amongst a congregation. The law of the land does take precedence, but I thought the state stayed out of religious affairs as far as it could.

Is it not strange that under this new normal we can buy as much alcohol as we like and drink ourselves silly? Some will overdo it and die; some will have liver cirrhosis later in the year. We have sloth, millions furloughed doing nothing. We have greed, companies taking advantage of the situation. We have gluttony, where people are eating more than normal and becoming even more prone to the virus. We have envy, envious of Sweden / Belarus maybe. We have pride, proud of our dear leader. We don't have marriages or much in the way of dating, but we have lust, lusting via online porn channels.

The South Korean Model.

Isolating infected people was swift. Virus was contained very early on. This was achieved without a lockdown like what the UK is suffering, How they will reopen airports and seaports is a mystery. Will they keep the lid on it? Social distancing is a bane and may prove wearisome over time. People are ignoring constant text messages. Trying to emulate their model is incredulous. The UK government first suggested that we will have 20,000 deaths, that figure has passed long ago. We are being told that 15,000 contact tracers will be deployed. Some suggest we will need 100,000 milling about for years to come to see the virus off.

Secondary illnesses

In a small proportion of cases, people appear to have been affected by additional illnesses after recovering from Covid-19. The extent of which is still being studied. This has to be factored in were we to allow the virus to 'rip'.

The overlap

We only die once. A death recorded as virus related means a death won't be recorded elsewhere. This is overlap. We could record 600,000 virus, 300,000 other. Either way the end total is what matters. Ignoring the deaths caused by lockdown, we expect to register 900,000 deaths in total this year. The overlap seems to be over 50%. In simple terms people would have died of something or another within an hour, a day, a week, or a month or so.

Fight the virus head on.

Lift the lockdown. Make social distancing voluntary. Super isolate the vulnerable for 2 months. Provide oxygen to people that need it in their own home. Return to work. Rebuild the economy now. Re-open all schools. Live again. This option is not pleasant. It is however much less nasty than keeping the lockdown in place and having a higher death toll by the end of the year. Virus casualties and lockdown manslaughters. Those that believe that we can manage the virus may be right but are more likely to be badly mistaken. Lockdowns could become the biggest mistake in human history. It is unjust, unreasonable, unethical to place so many people under house arrest. If I had any faith that lockdowns would work, I would support them wholeheartedly. I have been conflicted many times. After each re-analysis the same conclusion manifests itself. Lockdowns are wrong.

The Plan

Lift lockdown with immediate effect.

End all social distancing regulations with immediate effect.

Introduce super-isolation for the old, vulnerable and obese. Ensure those in any sort of contact are ultra-careful with any interactions during the 2-3 month period while virus passes through. This should be more sustainable than trying to be careful for 18+ months. We could consider food parcels delivered by the state. Standard packs of food that would be far simpler to manage than online shopping.

The super-isolation is voluntary. If someone wants to go out, they may. They decide for themselves. It is advisory for them to stay indoors isolated. It is not compulsory. If someone feels that they only have a few months to live and want to live, let them live.

When the nightingale hospitals fill, people will remain at home if struck with the virus. All endeavours will be made to provide either oxygen tanks or oxygen generators. They will be looked after by their family where possible.

Social distancing will be voluntary. People must not come into contact with any of the vulnerable without complying with the ultra-careful procedures. Cold calling is strictly prohibited for 4 months.

Those that do not want to go back to work on account of a genuine or primitive fear of catching the virus may remain on the furlough scheme for 3 months. Employers may replace those not wishing to return to work whilst virus is ripping.

'Corona parties' are not to be encouraged, standard regular hand washing will. It is a return to work or study rather than a go out and catch it mentality. Herd immunity will prevail. It will be fine no matter what. Brace ourselves for pandemic to pandemonium avoiding pandemic to apocalypse. We will see high levels of death concentrated and it will be awful. However, it will not be as awful as trying to continue with this farcical lockdown.

Rebuild the economy. Open all schools. Open all businesses. Live again. Do not accept the so called 'new normal'. It is not normal. Normal is how it was before. Replace fear with freedom and enjoyment. People die. You may die in a whole manner of different ways. A car crash, an electrocution, a food poising event, a fall down some stairs or in a horrid fire. Stop worrying. Unless you are old or in bad shape you don't have much to fear apart from fear itself.

The Governments Optimal Death Strategy.

(The Acronym was accidental - I only noticed it myself after the TikTok video was made) We will have something in the region of 300,000 excess deaths due to the virus lockdown or no lockdown. Flattening the curve means spreading the deaths out. Spacing them out. Same number by the end of the process. To be clear this means that the usual 1% death rate we have in the UK of 600,000 souls will rise to 1.5%, 900,000.

However, we have the lockdown deaths. This could be as high as 150,000, however data from week 18 may indicate that this projection is now unreliable.

There are 1. 4 million vulnerable people that have visits by family to drop off food. They also have visits by care workers. The more visits, the more chances there are of a mistake being made and an accidental infection. The longer the lockdown goes on the more opportunity the virus has of taking them down. We can speculate that 10% will be killed over 12 months. This is speculation as modelling this is exceedingly difficult. We also have to consider the lowering of people's spirits that damages health. The total lack of hope. The massive uncertainty. Knowing that there will be herd immunity in 2-3 months is a plan that encourages people to strive to live.

Thus, the government could not have picked a path that kills more.

600,000 + 300,000 + 150,000 + 140,000 Vs 600,000 + 300,000 + 30,000 + (30,000 lockdown deaths are already set in place due to this lockdown) 40,000 (Not all the vulnerable will avoid the virus)

Things that are true but are unhelpful

Less people are dying from car accidents during the lockdown. That is correct but 'only' 10 die per day on the roads. With traffic levels halved we have 5 less deaths per day. Lockdown is killing 350 so not a meaningful argument. There are also a lot of people that are driving like 'lunatics' of late and maybe the accident rate has not even dropped at all.

Sweden is a smaller country. Yes, it is. It makes no difference to the proportion of people that will die by virus. The virus will spread a lot faster in London. It only affects the rate people get infected. We will have virus deaths and lockdown deaths added to the total.

Sweden's death toll is rising much faster. Yes, it is. That is exactly what we would expect. They are having their tragic deaths compressed into a few months. 100 x 10 is the same as 10 x 100.

When I say that we are 30 times more likely to die from cancer than die from the virus, people reply, "but, you can't catch cancer". No, but you could have caught it earlier. Many will leave it too late.

Conspiracy theories.

The 5g one was quite comical were it not for that the fact so many believed in it. Notice how those who propose very silly conspiracies are cashing in. They are also getting the attention they crave. Maybe I am guilty of something along those lines, but what can I do? Maybe, if you slept on top of a 5g aerial you may become unwell eventually. Radiation intensity falls of rapidly as you move away from the source.

Was it made in a lab? I ask how is it that they have the tech to make a virus and not the tech to make a vaccine quickly. Is one harder than the other? Not really. This talk takes away the focus from dealing with the problem in hand.

The NHS will not be overwhelmed.

Most people will stay at home. They may need oxygen from a tank or generator. These will be used and then passed over to the next person in need. They will be nursed by their family or members of the community. Any care workers available will also assist. The carer is required for physio, observation, correct positioning and detection of deterioration, all of which is manageable by someone without years of nursing experience. Consider whether you would want to go to hospital and risk bacterial infection, abide by certain rules, have no one visit you, awful food and constant noise day and night. Compare that to being at home with someone you love by your side, caring for your needs the way you want.

Fear will keep a lot of people at home. This can be used to our advantage. The ramping up of cases will not be as fast as we may think. It is a plan that gets us fully out of lockdown and reduces the overall death toll by a wide margin. It would take nerves of steel to implement it though. It also needs the general public on board. Once again, the fear comes into play. We have become scared of our own shadow.

The NHS may well be overwhelmed before winter because of lockdown.

700,000 monthly routine operations will be resumed. This along with the gigantic backlog that we now have will re-fill the NHS. Add in lockdown casualties and we have a huge problem. Small issues get larger. More falls in the home. Some small treatable issues that are left can in some cases lead to your death.

One person

I am sure you know of the one person in charge that suggested that drinking bleach might help. There is one person in charge of Syria that seems to be keeping the citizens in dire straits. One person with eternal control in Russia. One person with lifelong command in China. One person in Israel that has used the pandemic to clamp down on the lives of those living there, One person in Italy that has brought about the biggest mental health crisis that all the psychologists in the world could never deal with. One person in Spain that thought kids would enjoy staying inside their home for weeks on end. Then to cap it all we have one person who flips and flops in charge of our destiny. Someone with whims and capriciousness that thinks that we should only have 2-3 pints of beer max when the lockdown is finally fully lifted sometime in 2021 or maybe 2025. The degradation, disruption, disembowelment and destruction of our lives has been set in motion by one person.

It is now down to one person: You. You can make a banner and walk the streets 'exercising'. You can go outside your front door and scream at the top of your voice. (I did see one lady with a speaker box do just that on TikTok. ) You can campaign. You can decide the best course of action. I do not mind if you make a sign that reads; "Keep the lockdown forever". Make any sign you want. Just do not sit there bored any longer.

The thrust of my argument is that all lives matter. Lockdown victims should count too. I will admit that there is a tiny part of me that does yearn for being able to dance with someone again. Whatever you think, I will not stand by and let one person decide our fate.

This virus is nasty, it picks on those who are already in a bad state of health the most. It spreads like wildfire. It might be tameable in theory but maybe the dream of dealing with it by lockdown is science fiction. Do we want death by virus - very awful or death by virus and lockdown - very very awful.